Analyzing the Defense and Goalies
Can the team defense and goaltending take a big step forward this season?
Stephen: The Engineers will be looking for the defense to improve this year after struggling through most of last season due to youth and inexperience. The talent is there, however, so I know I’m really excited to see their improvement.
First-Pair Defensemen
Sertti had a breakout year last year as RPI’s best defenseman who could play in all situations effectively. His skating is elite and he has the size, strength and physicality to go with it to make him a great defender. On our Q&A with Coach Smith, he said he wants to increase the quality of Sertti’s minutes not the quantity. They want him to take the leap and become a true #1 defenseman. I think he’s capable of that leap and am excited to see what he can do.
Smolinski was expected to a solid player right away, but he certainly surpassed my expectations. I thought he was the 2nd best defenseman on the team, start to finish. He was excellent on the power play and in transition, and he is good in his own end too. He had very good underlying metrics for corsi and xG, showing even more how he positively impacted games. Smolinski has the potential to be an All-ECAC player in the future, and while I don’t know that he gets there this season, I also expect him to grow as a player.
Chris: The RPI defense took a big step back last year as it dealt with key losses in the form of Jake Johnson, Anthony Baxter, and Simon Kjellberg. One of its biggest shortcomings was its lack of experience, as Kyle Hallbauer was really the only guy with significant college hockey experience. That really shouldn’t be a problem this year since every blueliner has logged at least one year of college hockey. Additionally, the coaching staff brought in CJ Regula and Lucas Matta, who are both advertised as defensive-minded players. We will have to see if this unit collectively improves, but the team’s upside will improve dramatically if this group can take a few steps forward.
I’ll begin with senior Lauri Sertti, who enters this year as RPI’s top defenseman and will be expected to contribute quality minutes in all situations. He led the Rensselaer blueline with 15 points last year and he possesses elite skating and play-driving ability capable of running a powerplay unit. The part of his game that really has come along is his reliability in the defensive end, and he really cleaned up the growing pains that are typical from freshmen defensemen. Look for Sertti to take another step forward this year in a leadership role, and cement himself as RPI’s #1 defenseman.
Max Smolinski returns for year 2 fresh off an excellent freshman year, where he contributed 14 points. Max logged big minutes right from day 1, and it was clear his game was ready for college hockey immediately. His offensive game is his calling card, I expect him to quarterback one of our powerplay units this year. While he was solid in his own end, I think if he improves his defense the way Sertti did, he will be a top-tier ECAC defenseman this season.
Top-Four Defensemen
Stephen: Nick Strom was paired with Smolinski for a lot of the year and proved to be a capable top 4 defenseman. He’s a defensive defenseman with good intelligence and awareness on the ice. He’s the classic shutdown defenseman who doesn’t make mistakes and rarely is on the ice for goals against. I think he can excel in that role in the top 4 this year.
Regula is one of the newcomers on the blue line, and he comes over from Ohio State in the Mason Klee for CJ Regula trade. Regula is similar to Klee in a lot of ways. He’s a right-shot defenseman that’s very big and strong, and he defends hard in his own end. Regula was only on Ohio State’s 3rd pairing last season, but he was very effective in those minutes for a team that went to the NCAA tournament and made it to the final 8. He will get more minutes here and looks to be a good shutdown defenseman, and Coach Smith also thinks that he has some offensive upside in his game.
Jack Agnew had a bit of down year after a great start to his RPI career as a sophomore where he was impactful in the top 4. Last year, he added some more offense to his game and showed effectiveness on the power play. However, he took a step back defensively, which had been his calling card as a sophomore. I think he will bounce back and be a top 4 quality player who hopefully can combine his defensive strength from 2021-22 and offensive strength from 2022-23.
Chris: Strom is a glue guy who is rock solid defensively, and complements an offensive defenseman like Max Smolinski well, who he spent the bulk of his time with last year. He was a captain in the USHL and is considered a great leader and a capable defender, that is the type of player every team needs.
CJ Regula enters the picture as the obvious Mason Klee replacement and a potential backbone of this defense. Regula’s entire impact is not displayed in the box score, but he is the type of player this team needs as it tries to shift back to a defensive identity. He is a converted forward who should contribute more offense than he did at Ohio State and solidify the penalty kill with his experience in one of the top conferences in college hockey.
I am bullish on Agnew entering this season, and I think it is important to consider how we felt about him entering last season as we sit here making projections. Now it is fair to say he was boosted by the stellar play of Jake Johnson in 2022, but Agnew is now a senior and a veteran of this blueline, who the coaching staff needs to rely on. He has shown flashes of a strong offensive game and a strong defensive game, but it is up to Jack to put it all together. If he does, I expect him to battle for top-pair minutes and help to carry this blueline.
Third-Pair Defensemen
Stephen: The last 3 players all bring different things to the table, and all will see time on the bottom pairing and as 7th D.
Ardanaz has dynamic skating and skill, which gives him the highest upside of the 3. Last year, he struggled in his own end, which prevented him from using his offensive gifts more. If he can be more stable defensively, he can be great.
Davies is another defensive defenseman. He’s big, long and a high-end skater. He really came on in the second half of the season last year and was playing really well. If he keeps that up, I think he will be in the lineup regularly in shutdown and PK role similar to Regula and Strom but with less offense.
Matta is a mix of the two. He’s a two-way defenseman with good size and skating. He can defend well but he also has a good shot and can move the puck. Matta was really good in the BCHL in 2021-22 before he went to Western Michigan, and he could be a top 4 player down the road. This year, I expect he will be competing with Ardanaz and Davies for ice time and give the coaches an option that has a mix of offense and defense.
Chris: I agree with Stephen’s thoughts on Ardanaz, his defense really held him back last year, but it is easy to see the skill offensively. Regardless of his defensive ability, since RPI is only carrying 8 D, I expect him to play a lot even if only as the 7th defenseman because of the value he brings on the powerplay.
Dylan Davies entered RPI extremely raw but made significant strides in his opportunities last year. He is long and skates well and should provide the coaching staff with a solid defensive option on the 3rd pair.
Lastly, I think Lucas Matta could be another example of a player that couldn’t crack the lineup at a big-time program but comes to RPI and flourishes. Since the coaching staff did not bring in any freshman defensemen, it will be important for Matta and Ardanaz to establish themselves on the back end for the coming years. Like Stephen said he was a quality junior player, but the defensive core at Western Michigan last year was experienced and talented and he struggled with injuries. I am actually higher on him than Ardanaz and Davies, and I expect Lucas to slot into the 3rd pair immediately.
This year’s team is light on defenseman, carrying only 8, but it certainly seems like 5 can be penciled into the lineup every night. It is a unit that needs to improve if this team is going to take a big step forward, but I expect Jack Agnew to have a big bounce back, and Lucas Matta to come in and provide solid minutes right away.
Can the defense take that big step?
Brendan: In our post mortem on the 2022-23 season, I talked about how important year-over-year roster stability is to a team. This season, the defense has that. 6 of the 8 defensemen are returners, and the 2 others transfer in with prior college hockey experience.
Here is a high-level look at how these defensemen performed last season:
RPI comes into this season with a clear set of top-four defensemen in Sertti, Smolinski, Regula and Strom. All four have shown they can perform at that level. Regula mostly played on the 3rd pairing for Ohio State last season, but he was on a tournament team, and his individual defensive metrics were stellar. I’m expecting him to take a bigger role with ease.
There’s good balance as well, with two lefties, two righties, two more offensive-minded players, and two more defensive-minded. Put it all together, and you have a strong core of blue-liners.
Where things get interesting are the remaining three spots. Davies had a lowkey real strong season last year and I would not be surprised to see him lock down a spot on the third pair. Ardanaz and Agnew have more questions around them, but their offensive potential is undoubtedly high. Matta has the least college hockey experience of all the defensemen but was real strong in the BCHL.
With all that said, expect some rotation amongst these last three defensemen spots depending on who is in form and the opponent.
What about the goaltending?
Stephen: If the Engineers want to be competitive this year, they have to get better goaltending than last year. They simply won’t win if they don’t.
By now, everyone knows the story with Watson. He had a great freshman year and was getting NHL looks. Then, he struggled last year and had to deal with some injuries. He’s more than capable of bouncing back, and RPI needs him to. If he can match or play better than his freshman year performance, they’ll be in great position.
Cherepak has the ability to push Watson. He was very good in the MJHL as the best goalie in the league. Last year, he wasn’t ready to step up and start when Watson was struggling, but it’s tough to expect a freshman to come in and be a quality starter. I think we got a little spoiled by having Savory and Watson do that right off the bat, and I’m reminding you here that is not normal. Ideally, Cherepak can take a step forward to push Watson, and the competition helps both of them elevate their play.
Miller was also not able to take the mantle and start last year when given the opportunity. With him being a senior, he provides a veteran presence in the net, and I think he can be a reliable backup who wins games in spot starts.
Chris: The Engineers will run it back with Jack Watson between the pipes this year, and the success he has will go a long way towards determining how far this team makes it. In my opinion, the truth lies somewhere in the middle for Watson, between his stellar freshman season and subpar sophomore year. The 0.922 SV% he produced in his freshman year may be the top of his game, but I also believe he is way better than the 0.895 SV% he turned in last year. If Watson produces a year in the middle of his first two, the Engineers will be set up for success. If he is better or worse in either direction, well, you do the math.
Carson Cherepak is considered a grinder by this coaching staff, and he is the type of kid you want to challenge Watson for the top netminder spot. He is not a big guy, but he makes up for it with positioning and quickness. I expect him to be the first man up if Watson falters, and another year of collegiate competition should take him closer to starter level. I have him clearly ahead of Brett Miller, who will be there if necessary should the first two struggle or get injured.
Love it gents! I'm tad worried about the LD slot gotta be on their toes against the very,very faced pace of the elite right wingers in the ECAC... and the better more experience D core will only help the goalie situation... Question who do you guys have coming in next season on the D side of things?
Let's Go RED!!!