Breaking Down the Forward Group
Who are the key additions? Who is poised to take a bigger role? All that, and more.
While it didn’t undergo as drastic of an overhaul as the defensive core did, the forward group will still have a different look. It’s a more balanced group this year. Felix Caron will add a scoring touch to a team that only averaged 2.5 goals per game. Jordan Tonelli and Rainers Rullers will aid in winning back the puck and keeping it, something the team really struggled with last season. Jagger Tapper and Mat Bourgault will add to the depth of this forward unit – something that should be a real strength for the team this year. And of course, there’s the other eleven returning guys who will not only bring a good bit of experience, but who can also hopefully step up into even bigger roles this year.
As has become tradition here at The Field House, we’ve divided the forwards up into three groups to analyze: top-six, bottom-six, and depth guys. Let’s get into it.
The Top-Six
Brendan: Let’s start with the top-six. These are guys who will see the most ice time, the most power play time, and who likely will end up with the highest point totals come the end of the season. It’s not too dissimilar from last year’s group. Muzzatti, Lee, Hotson, and Tinling were also the four forwards with the most ice time per game last season. Joining them on our list are Jordan Tonelli, a graduate transfer from Brown, and Felix Caron, a freshman who finished 3rd in scoring in the BCHL last season.
Sutter Muzzatti and Tyler Hotson stand out here as the two top forwards on the team. Muzzatti played a good chunk of last season hampered with injury yet has still managed 17 goals and 47 points in 68 games with RPI. And you’d have to go back to 2003 to find an Engineer that scored more goals in their freshman year than Hotson.
Looking at the underlying numbers (as we so often like to do), both led the team in key chance creation metrics:
Not only did their passes lead often set up shots, but they also sent those passes into the most dangerous area on the ice more often than anyone else. Pair them up with a scorer like Lee, Gagnon or even Felix Caron, and good things are bound to happen.
But these two aren’t just purely set up men. They can absolutely score as well. Their individual scoring metrics were up among the team lead last year as well:
Now add that into a team that should have much better puck possession than they’ve had in previous seasons, and these two will have plenty of time in the offensive zone to go to work.
If Muzzatti and Hotson are the chance creators, then Jake Lee and Felix Caron are the two pure goal scorers in this group. Although he’s missed some time in the past two years, Lee has shown he is highly capable of scoring, both at even strength and on the powerplay. The underlying numbers suggest he was unlucky not to have lit the lamp even more – Lee led the team in Expected Goals and Scoring Chances created per 60 last season.
While a top line of Hotson-Muzzatti-Lee sounds pretty enticing, don’t be surprised to see Felix Caron work his way into the conversation at some point. He’s fresh off a monster year in the BCHL. Obviously, the goal-scoring stands out (37 goals is nothing to scoff at), but Caron also put up some really strong playdriving numbers in West Kelowna.
We’ve talked a lot about it with the defensive adds this offseason, but RPI was desperately lacking playdrivers last year, so anyone who brings that to the table is certain to be valuable. I think we’ll see Caron follow a similar path to Hotson – the talent will be apparent from the beginning, but it will take until the second half of the season for it to all really click together.
That leaves Dovar Tinling and Jordan Tonelli as the last two on our list. Both have quite different styles of play – Tinling is more of the high skill and offense-oriented player, whereas Tonelli fills more of a defensive forward role. Put the two together and you have the best of both worlds. Tonelli can be the main guy on the forecheck, the one retrieving pucks and winning them back to keep the pressure on a tiring defensive unit. Tinling can then take the puck and set up the scoring chances with his vision and skill.
Not only does Tonelli bring a high defensive work rate, but Smith has also talked a lot about his character and how well he’s meshing with the rest of the locker room. He could be exactly what the top-six needs: the glue guy who elevates everyone around him both on and off the ice.
Now I’m not saying it’s guaranteed for the top two lines to be Hotson-Muzzatti-Lee and Tonelli-Tinling-Caron – injuries and the like will get in the way throughout the course of the season. But it’s clear that the top six has a good mixture of guys who, if they can click together, are more than capable of producing.
The Bottom-Six
Chris: First up here is John Beaton, who returns to the Engineers as a graduate student after an up and down season. John had an exciting first year capitalized with an OT winner at Harvard in the playoffs, but it hasn’t all gone his way since. A snake-bitten junior year followed by a significant lower-body injury have all been detrimental to his development the last few seasons. I am excited to see John off of a healthy offseason with a potential move to the wing for this season. I think it will benefit his game to move off center and he can specialize as a playmaking left wing that should mesh well with a sniper like Jake Gagnon. His experience will be invaluable to the group and I believe this is the year he puts all that talent together and makes a big impact in the middle 6.
Brad McNeil is one guy on this roster who I am extremely high on who is poised to make another step forward. Not that long ago, Dave Smith recruited another overager center out of the NAHL, who produced 8 points in his freshman year (the same as McNeil), produced on the PK, and played a highly responsible game. Who, you may ask? Ture Linden would be your answer. Brad may never replicate the 20 goal senior season that Ture had, but I do think his development could be on the same path. He excelled in the 4th-line center role last year and was a mainstay in the lineup, but his next step is to add offense to his game and move into the middle 6. McNeil improved substantially every year in junior hockey, and I am excited to see what his collegiate development looks like.
Jake Gagnon also returns as a graduate student, which calls to mind the question of who the last returning captain was to return to the Engineers? If someone could find that stat, I would love to know the answer. Aside from Jake’s leadership which by all accounts is outstanding, he is a huge asset on the ice and an exciting returner. Jake’s best quality is his shot, which is lethal from the circle and high slot. He is an older player and I do not see a massive spike in production, but his 15-20 points on the 2nd or 3rd line will be great to have this year. He plays a responsible, 2-way game and can plug right into the lineup every single night.
Jeremie Payant is an interesting one to me as he returns to RPI to begin his sophomore year. His freshman year was a bit disappointing, but there were some serious flashes, specifically his four point period at Union. Jeremie’s speed is his biggest asset, but he also has the offensive ability to be a big factor below the goal line forechecking on the 3rd or 4th line. His game lacked a bit of maturity which is normal for freshmen, but I hope another summer in the program and added comfortability will help him put it together. It is very easy to envision what Jeremie is capable of, and if he can add the defensive elements I think he can really contribute.
Late news of a flashy commitment filtrated this summer as the Engineers added 6’4 Latvian center Rainers Rullers to the fold. Rullers is an exciting commitment, as word in Madison spread that the Engineers beat out very notable B10 and HEA suitors. Thank you, Karlis Zirnis effect. By the way, talk about a guy who earned his stripes on the recruiting trail this past year. Rullers, Bergmanis, and Ozolins are all extremely exciting Latvian commitments. Rainers is excellent defensively and should help the PK immediately with his high IQ and size. He played for Latvia in World Juniors last year and is by all accounts an excellent commitment this staff earned. I am extremely excited to see “The Reindeer” make an impact for this group going forward.
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The buzz around Nathan Sullivan’s commitment was palpable, as one look at this 6’4 power forward’s highlight tape could get a fan starry-eyed. However, there was speculation that he was coming a year too early to ensure he made it to campus, and unfortunately that proved correct. Sullivan is truly an x-factor coming into the year, I am not sure if he can be relied upon, but if he pops, I think he will be really, really good. To continue the comparison game, I see Ryan Mahshie in his game, and Ryan did not truly click until his junior year. In my opinion, Nate is the hardest player to speculate about coming into the year, because his ceiling is incredibly high, but there is no guarantee he contributes. Here’s to hoping he puts it all together, because if he does, look out.
I spoke ad nauseam this summer about the unique situation this team finds itself in with the middle 6 and how it has the potential to “make or break” the success of the forward group. Perhaps every team has this, but I do feel that this tier of the roster has many solid, known commodities, paired with high upside question marks that can take the group to the next level. I feel that the entire 3rd line I have listed are experienced, responsible players that the group can very definitively count on. In my opinion, the 4th line has players with higher upsides, but perhaps are not guaranteed to make large contributions this year. If the Engineers can find the right combination through maximizing the performance of their veterans while connecting on a few of the question marks, they will be deep at forward and have a very strong team this year.
The Depth Guys
Stephen: The last category of players is a mixed bag.
The first player here is the 5th year vet Jack Brackett. Initially, Brackett probably won’t be a depth piece that is out of the lineup. He will start ahead of young guys like Payant and Sullivan on the depth chart, but we are factoring in upside and projecting a bit where we expect players to actually end up. As a 5th year player, Brackett is not going to suddenly jump up in his production; you know what you’re going to get from him. He will not add much offense, but his speed and forechecking allow him to be a good defensive forward at the bottom of the lineup.
On the other hand, you have 2 incoming freshmen in Bougault and Tapper, but even these two players are very different. Bourgault is a heavy, physical forward who projects to contribute defensively and on the PK when he’s in the lineup.
Tapper is kind of a wild card to me, and I could see him slotting in higher. He had a very interesting year last year (in a good way). He started out playing well but not amazing in the AJHL. Then, the 5 AJHL teams broke off to the BCHL, and despite the better competition, Tapper upped his level and played great hockey in the BCHL. Then, the playoffs came around, and Tapper took it up another notch. He was Okotoks’ best player in the playoffs and led them in scoring. He just kept getting better and better as the year went on. For that reason, I find him tough to project. If he continues that trajectory, Tapper could find himself winning a spot on the 3rd line. But he’s also not a natural fit on a checking line, so if he’s not able to earn a top 9 role, he could find himself out of the lineup frequently. It’ll be interesting to see it play out regardless of which way it goes.