Preview: ECAC First Round at Clarkson

RPI looks to win in Potsdam again to advance in the playoffs

Photo: Clarkson Men’s Hockey

A disappointing regular season has come to an end, and it is once again time for some playoff hockey. Coach Smith spoke this week about the importance of this game to change the narrative of the season, and I could not agree more. The Engineers have only seen the second round once since 2015-16, so some playoff success would really go a long way. I certainly think RPI has a good chance in this one, but it is going to take their best game and a good night in net from Jack Watson. Let’s hope for some revenge from last year after getting the short end of the stick of the new 1 game playoff. Let’s break down the matchup:

Opinions on the Season Series:

The Engineers and the Golden Knights split the season series, with an RPI win on the road in November and a Clarkson win at the HFH in January. The first game was during Jack Watson’s injury, and the Engineers really have Carson Cherepak to thank for this win. The Net xG for this game was -2.9, so a combination of opportunistic scoring and strong goaltending helped RPI get a gritty road win. The opposite was true in the rematch, as RPI won Net xG by over 1 but came out on the wrong end of the contest. I was at the home game and remember feeling like the Engineers played a fine game but were just a bit outclassed by this Clarkson team. Another observation is that both games were low on shots and chances likely because Clarkson emphasizes clogging the neutral zone. RPI will need to be opportunistic on their chances like they have all season to be successful in this one.

Team Breakdown:

Data via InStat

Clarkson has some really strange metrics relative to where they are in the Pairwise, specifically some of their offensive production stats. Both of these teams shoot at a very high percentage, as up until the recent cold stretch, RPI was in the top 10 in the country. We have hit on this many times all season, but where I would really like to see improvement next year is quantity of shots and possession. The low Corsi numbers hurt RPI’s offensive chances, which of course leads to fewer goals for and more against. Clarkson’s systematic defense is as usual pretty solid as they do a nice job moving play towards their offensive zone and limiting chances. Many of these play driving metrics that we track are meant to be a baseline across the season, typically indicating the level of play for a team. The ironic part of the one game playoff though is that it almost exclusively comes down to shooting % and save %, because all it requires is opportunistic scoring on one night. This works in RPI’s favor because they have had a quick strike offense all year and Watson has the capability to have a big night.

Roster Breakdown:

Data via InStat

I do not mean this is an arrogant way but quite frankly Clarkson should be better than they were this season. Truthfully this statement applies to RPI too, but my point is that on paper Clarkson is a top 4 team. For reference, Stephen picked them 3rd in his ECAC preview and expected them to compete for the national tournament. I think a couple things happened which led to their underperformance:

1. The defense, primarily Noah Beck, has not been as good as we thought.

   Noah Beck had 23 points and was 3rd team All-ECAC last year. This year, 9 points and a -16!! That is a really difficult falloff for a player that was expected to be all-league (Yes, I am aware he will probably score twice now). Kaelan Taylor and ASU transfer Jack Judson have been great, but 5th-year Dustyn McFaul has disappointed as well.

2. High-end scoring has not been there

   Clarkson on the surface has one of the best lines in the league and all of eastern college hockey. They did lose Alex Campbell to Northeastern, but Martino and Gosselin both produced 38 and 33 points respectively, as well as Anthony Romano who was a point per game when he played. These three have been good players, but similar to Beck they probably have not produced as many goals as you would like.

3. No goaltender has dominated

   Clarkson has traditionally gotten excellent goaltending on their best teams, with the likes of Jake Keilly and Greg Lewis coming to mind. Austin Roden has been pretty good and will definitely play Saturday, but he has not been spectacular. This is another factor that has kept them from being a tier better like they expect.

   There is not much to report as far as RPI’s lineup goes, the only real question is if they are healthier Saturday. Clarkson clearly has the advantage top-to-bottom, but RPI will have to exploit their defensive flaws for more goal scoring.

Parting Shots:

Like Coach Smith has said numerous times in his media this week, this win could be a narrative changer. Yes, if they win the likely next outcome is a loss at Quinnipiac, but a playoff win and a hard-fought quarterfinal would help salvage something. RPI showed in the season series that they match up with Clarkson well, but Cheel is a very tough place to play. The Engineers will have to try to control the momentum and swings the best that they can. Something to monitor for RPI will be the health of the roster, as Muzzatti, Gagnon, and Regula have all missed some time lately. Smith gave mixed signals on the health of the roster this week, and obviously this is a big factor.

I have had a great time covering the regular season even if it has not gone as we planned. But the season is not over, it is time to show the urgency and live to fight another day! In this new one game format, upsets are even more likely, which works in RPI’s favor.

Hey, after all we only need 9 wins to be national champions.