Last weekend was frustrating one for the Engineers. Two different games where RPI was clearly the better team, and they did not come away with a win in either of them. There are positives though. The 2nd period against Clarkson is easily the best period they’ve ever had under Coach Lang. I’d also wager that the 9 expected goals on the weekend is the highest mark they’ve had in his tenure too. If they keep playing like that, they are not going to lose too many games.
Friday at UNH
UNH is going to be a very tough opponent to start the weekend with. They are off to a 5-4-1 start, which puts them at 25th in the NPI currently. They started off horribly with a 10-2 loss against Quinnipiac, and that’s deflating a lot of their numbers. Since then, they have really buttoned up into a tight team defensively, allowing only 17 goals in the last 9 games. On the season, they are only allowing 22 shots on goal per game, which is 6th in the country.
UNH has only lost to teams ranked in the top 20 so far: Quinnipiac, Michigan State, and UVM. Against Michigan State, they dominated the weekend despite the crazy firepower on that roster. In game 1, they outshot Michigan State 34-14. In game 2, it was 39-23. The only reason UNH wasn’t able to sweep the weekend was because of 1st round pick Joshua Ravensbergen stealing the 2nd game.
UNH is led by Nick Ring at forward with 14 points in 10 games. He is a shifty and skilled playmaker who has been driving a ton of offense for them. The next two highest scorers are transfer Ryan Johnson, who has 9 points, and freshman Emile Guite with 6 goals and 8 points. The scoring depth has been a weakness for UNH, and their forwards really drop off after that. If RPI can find a way to keep those top guys off the board, they’ll be in good shape.
RPI is going to have to continue their play from last weekend to generate chances against this stingy UNH team. Expect a low-scoring and low event game where it’ll be up to both teams to finish the limited chances that they do earn.
Saturday at Lowell
UMass Lowell has really struggled out of the gate this season. They are 2-8 on the season with the only wins coming against Colgate and St. Lawrence. They have struggled scoring; they average only 2.5 goals per game. Like UNH, they also really struggle with scoring depth. Dalyn Wakely has 11 points in 10 games, and Jacob MacDonald has 10 points in 9 games. After that duo, the next highest point getter only has 5 points.
Lowell’s underlying metrics actually aren’t that bad. They are breaking even in shots on goal: 30.3 for/29.7 against. Their main issue is that they have struggled finishing their chances, and the goaltending has been poor. While they certainly could use more talent, their system is known for stifling their offense, and I think that’s a big part of the issue on the finishing side. For goaltending, they have a 0.875 team SV%, and neither goaltender has shown to be capable. Austin Elliott has more starts and a 0.877 SV%. He led the London Knights to a Memorial Cup in junior, but he has struggled to translate that success to the NCAA level. Cole Moore transferred over from Bowling Green and he has only a 0.871 SV% in his 4 games.
Are they due for some positive regression? They could be because it’s not like they’ve played as poorly as a 2-8 record indicates, but I do think their style is limiting offensively. I expect the defense and goaltending to improve over the course of the year though. Let’s hope their positive regression comes on Friday night against Union.
These are two winnable games against opponents who are better than they look on paper, in my opinion. It should be a great weekend of hockey. Let’s Go Red!