Preview: RPI vs St. Lawrence

The Engineers look to avenge an early season road loss

St. Lawrence captain Justin Paul with the puck in the offensive zone (photo: St. Lawrence Athletics)

Last time out against the Saints, RPI took a 3-0 first period lead only to see it evaporate due to allowing 3 goals on the PK. SLU took the lead with 6 minutes left in the game on the PP, and then got 2 empty netters to put the game away. It was a missed opportunity to get a rare sweep on the road in the North Country.

A lot has changed since then. The Engineers are playing much better in the past month and will host a SLU team that has only played 4 real games since the end of November. They will need to keep up the strong play to get their revenge in this one.

Team Breakdowns

It’s really amusing how different these teams are.

SLU excels at controlling play through their puck possession with a pretty impressive 51.6% corsi on the year. This is mainly due a great job limiting puck possession defensively, but they also hold their own with a decent number of shots offensively.

It’s a pretty similar story for scoring chances and xG. SLU is great at limiting chances, but they do struggle a bit to generate their own. They even out to be about average in terms of xG.

It all unravels though when it comes to actual goals. SLU cannot finish their chances whatsoever with one of the worst shooting percentages in the country. At even strength, they’ve got a horrendous 6.40% shooting percentage. Usually finishing chances is simply about having skill and talent. In my preseason preview, I had my doubts if SLU had enough talent to be a good team since their leading forward last year, Cameron Buhl, only had 18 points. We’re now seeing that come to fruition. It’s not like SLU is totally devoid of talent; they definitely have some good players. It’s just not enough.

Despite getting pretty solid goaltending overall with Ben Kraws taking the net, the lack of finishing just totally tanks SLU in the actual goals department. They have a really low 39% GF% at even strength.

The graphic shows you how different RPI is from that. While they have been doing better at puck possession and scoring chances recently, on the whole, it is still a weakness for them. Their strong finishing ability has remained pretty steady, which indicates the depth and talent that the coaching staff has recruited and developed. What’s different now is that the goaltending has been good recently.

That has made all the difference, and it’s why RPI is turning in more wins. With SLU’s strong chance generation, they will need Watson to remain on top of his game like he has been since returning from injury.

Roster Breakdowns

If RPI returns to full health this weekend, this is about what we expect the lineup to look like. They especially could use Tinling and Lee back as they are two of their most dangerous offensive threats. That has been particularly true when they combine with Hotson. That line started doing some serious damage in December, but both Tinling and Lee were injured against Canisius and didn’t finish the weekend.

SLU’s best players in terms of points per game are Gavars and Mazura, and game score agrees. They are rated as two of the best players on the team. Dorrington joins them with that distinction despite only having 3 points on the season. His play driving metrics are strong, which adds a dimension that SLU needs.

Outside of those forwards, the bottom pairing of McIntosh and Lammens has been sneakily effective. They can be a valuable shutdown pairing for the remainder of the season. Luc Salem is very much having a down year after he made All-ECAC last year. He only has 4 points, and he has not driven play particularly well either. With his talent, you would expect him to be able to turn it around and remain one of their biggest threats.

Summary

If RPI can win the puck possession and scoring chances game, this is a game they can win with SLU’s lack of finishing ability. Even if those are even or close to even, the numbers indicate RPI would have the upper hand with their talent and finishing ability at even strength. In a home game against a team directly above them in the standings, points are at a premium, and they need to bring their A game. Let’s Go Red!