ECAC Preview 2025-26
What's Quinnipiac's ceiling? Which teams are due for a rise up the standings? Who could surprise?
After a very busy offseason (at least for me as someone who covers RPI primarily), the new season is on the cusp! It’s time to dive into the ECAC and take a deep look at every team. I’ll once again be using my model to predict the standings as it consistently has driven pretty good results. An interesting wrinkle that I’m excited to see play out is the addition of CHL players. They add a little variance because it’s impossible to know for sure how they will translate to college hockey. The consensus is that the OHL and WHL are on par with the USHL (if not even a little better) while the QMJHL is behind those 3. Here’s what the model had last year (with the difference from the actual result in parentheses).
Quinnipiac (—)
Cornell (4)
Clarkson (1)
Dartmouth (1)
Colgate (2)
Harvard (1)
Union (3)
Brown (—)
Princeton (—)
St. Lawrence (2)
RPI (1)
Yale (1)
Pretty good results overall. Every team was within 2 spots of their prediction except Cornell, who was extremely unlucky early in the year before making a run in the playoffs that justified the preseason hype, and Union, who was actually the 6th best team in the ECAC by the pairwise. If you ranked the teams by the pairwise, the model actually did fantastic with every team within 1 spot. Now, let’s get into it for this season!
1. Quinnipiac (Last Year: 1)
The more things change, the more they stay the same. This is now the 5th season in a row that Quinnipiac has been predicted to finish in first place, and they have delivered every time. This year, they are absolutely loaded with a roster that looks like a national championship contender on paper. The gap between them and the #2 projected team is about the same as the gap between #2 and #7 to give you an idea of how highly the model views them.
Key Losses: F Travis Treloar (36 points in 38 games), F Jack Ricketts (27 points in 38 games), D Davis Pennington (17 points in 38 games), D Cooper Moore (14 points in 37 games), D Aaron Bohlinger (14 points in 32 games)
Key Returners: F Jeremy Wilmer (41 points in 38 games), F Mason Marcellus (38 points in 38 games), F Andon Cerbone (35 points in 38 games), F Aaron Schwartz (30 points in 38 games), F Tyler Borgula (25 points in 38 games), F Chris Pelosi (24 points in 38 games), D Elliot Groenewold (12 points in 38 games), D Charlie Leddy (11 points in 37 games), G Matej Marinov (0.928 SV%)
Key Newcomers: D Will Gilson (RPI), F Matthew Lansing (USHL), D Logan McCutcheon (WHL), F Ben Riche (WHL), D Brady Schultz (QMJHL), D Graham Sward (ECHL), D Nate Tivey (QMJHL), F Antonin Verreault (QMJHL), F Markus Vidicek (QMJHL), F Ethan Wyttenbach (USHL)
Offense
Returning Offense Rank: 1
Incoming Class Rank: 1
Projected Offensive Rank: 1
Last year was somewhat of a rebuilding year for Quinnipiac as they had lost a lot of top players and gave multiple freshmen significant ice time. This year, they return the vast majority of their roster and the most returning scoring in the league.
Jeremy Wilmer was outstanding out of the transfer portal with over a point per game. He was joined by Mason Marcellus and Andon Cerbone who had 38 and 35 points, respectively. Those 3 upperclassmen will be looked at to lead the offense again, and now, they’re experienced and should have no issues there.
While Quinnipiac did lose key forwards Travis Treloar and Jack Ricketts to graduation, they should have no issues replacing them. Last year’s dynamic freshmen trio of Aaron Schwartz, Tyler Borgula, and Chris Pelosi all had 24+ points, and they’ll be expected to take a step forward this year. Based on their junior hockey pedigree, all 3 seem well equipped to do so. That gives Quinnipiac 6 dynamic forwards all returning from last year’s team.
When you factor in their recruiting class, it’s easy to see why the roster is so loaded. Quinnipiac went all-in on the CHL and landed numerous high level players, all of whom project to contribute immediately. Ben Riche had above a point per game in the WHL with 74 points in 64 games. Antonin Verreault has absolutely dominated the QMJHL the past 2 years with 107 points two seasons ago and 85 points last year. Markus Vidicek had a point per game in the Q last year after posting 88 points two seasons ago and 80 three seasons ago. All 3 players would probably be immediately on the top line for the majority of ECAC teams, but they’ll have to fight to even be on Quinnipiac’s second line.
Players from the USHL absolutely should not be discounted though. Ethan Wyttenbach is young, but he had above a point per game in the USHL last year, which led to a 5th round selection in the NHL draft. Matthew Lansing probably will only start out as a bottom 6 forward, but he was selected in the 7th round after he had 27 points in 54 games.
I have no idea how Quinnipiac is going to get all these players ice time honestly, but they will have no issues scoring.
On the blue line, they did lose a trio of good players from the top 4. Pennington, Moore and Bohlinger all contributed offensively, even if none of them were elite. To replace them, Quinnipiac landed RPI transfer Will Gilson out of the portal after he led the Engineers in scoring. He will slide right into the top 4 and contribute at even strength and on the power play.
Quinnipiac does return a couple players who should be able to take steps forward to fill bigger roles. Elliot Groenewold had a good freshman year where he contributed well both offensively and defensively despite being a true freshman. Now, he will need to be a go to guy in all situations, which he seems capable of doing based on his pedigree. Charlie Leddy transferred from BC and was able to contribute more offensively for the Bobcats than the Eagles.
The other spots were all filled with more high level CHL players. Logan McCutcheon is undersized but put up great offensive numbers in the WHL. He should still be able to transition well to the ECAC as the WHL is considered the most physical league in the CHL. Brady Schultz had a decorated career with Halifax in the QMJHL with excellent offensive numbers throughout his career. Lastly, Nate Tivey profiles very well due to his elite size (6’5 and 205 LBs) while also putting up outstanding offensive numbers last year in the QMJHL (40 points in 63 games). All 3 will likely contribute immediately.
Lastly, Quinnipiac made a late to the addition to the roster with Graham Sward. Sward is a former star WHL defenseman who had a whopping 81 points in 66 games in his final season there. Last year, he played a full season in the ECHL where he was a reliable two way defenseman. I have no idea how ECHL production translates to the NCAA for obvious reasons, but based on his WHL career, he seems like an elite two way defenseman who should be a stud at the college level. Quite the late add.
I see zero offensive holes to be honest. Quinnipiac has an excellent combo of elite returning talent and the league’s top recruiting class, which is filled with top junior hockey players. The model thinks this offense will score a whopping 4 goals per game, and while that’s a high number, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility considering they hit that mark in 2022-23 and 2023-24.
Defense
Projected Defensive Rank: 1
Unsurprisingly, Quinnipiac is expected to be an elite defensive team once again as well.
Starting in net, they return Matej Marinov who led the team with a 0.928 SV% last season. I’m not really sure why they gave him less starts than Dylan Silverstein (0.903 SV%) when he was clearly better, but I don’t expect them to make that mistake this year. Marinov is easily the most proven goalie in the league heading into the season, and his track record leaves me no doubt he will deliver for them.
Quinnipiac does have some minor question marks on the blue line since they lost 3 key contributors, and they will be pretty young there. I’m not overly concerned about it though (and neither is the model). Charlie Leddy had elite defensive impacts last season and will step into a bigger role this year. Groenewold was also strong defensively and should only get better given how young he is. That helps their projection even though the model does ding them for losing Pennington, Moore and Bohlinger.
Overall, Quinnipiac profiles as a national championship contender this season. They are projected to be the best team in the league by far with an elite offense and a similarly elite defense backed by the best returning goalie in the league. The only weakness is inexperience on the blue line, and that’s nitpicking to find an issue.
2. Clarkson (Last Year: 2)
Clarkson surprised me a bit last year, only because they had underperformed for two straight seasons, then had a coaching change. Naturally, I was skeptical to put them back in the top 4. I worried about their scoring depth, and I wasn’t sure how their defense would fare under a new head coach. I had them 6th even though the model had them 3rd. I should have listened to the model.
This year, Clarkson will have a young team with a bevy of CHL players as incoming recruits. They have a lot of talent and a deep roster that can contend for the title if the freshmen can adjust to college hockey quickly. I expect they will be an NCAA tournament bubble team again as J.F. Houle continues to put his own stamp on the program.
Key Losses: F Ayrton Martino (51 points in 39 games), F Ellis Rickwood (35 points in 39 games), F Ryan Richardson (30 points in 38 games), D Trey Taylor (29 points in 39 games), D Kaelan Taylor (7 points in 39 games), G Ethan Langenegger (0.914 SV%)
Key Returners: D Tristan Sarsland (23 points in 39 games), D Tate Taylor (16 points in 33 games)
Key Newcomers: G Nick Avakyan (NAHL), D William Bishop (QMJHL), F Justin Cote (QMJHL), F Remi Gelinas (QMJHL), D Noah Houle (Lindenwood), F Mikael Huchette (Concordia), F Jace Letourneau (BCHL), D Matthew Mayich (OHL), F Adrian Misaljevic (OHL), G Keenan Rancier (UVM), G Shane Soderwall (Curry), D Bryce Sookro (BCHL), F Mael St-Denis (QMJHL), F Owen Van Steensel (OHL)
Offense
Returning Offense Rank: 10
Incoming Class Rank: 2
Projected Offensive Rank: 2
Clarkson lost its top 4 scorers from last year. Martino is gone after a decorated career culminating in a 25 goal, 51 point season and an NHL contract. Richardson is also gone after 4 good years. Top line center Ellis Rickwood decided to transfer to North Dakota while Trey Taylor left early to sign an NHL contract. All are big losses at the top of the lineup.
Only Tristan Sarsland and Tate Taylor profile as key returners. Sarsland had 23 points from the blue line and will be their top defenseman this season. He is excellent both ways and should be an All-ECAC selection. Tate Taylor had a great freshman year and should take a step forward with more minutes this season.
The best returning forwards are Ryan Bottrill, Talon Sigurdson, and Luka Sukovic. All are solid players, but none of them hit the points per game mark needed to be considered key returners. With the youth of Clarkson’s forward group, they need the 3 of them to take steps forward.
Even if they don’t though, I think the incoming freshmen are talented enough to play top 6 minutes immediately, even if they have some growing pains to start. Remi Gelinas dominated the CCHL to start the year with 2 points per game, then moved over to the QMJHL where he still scored at well over a point per game pace. Adrian Misaljevic had 69 points in 67 games in the OHL. Both will play big roles right from the jump.
I also really like Justin Cote, Mikael Huchette and Owen Van Steensel. Cote is incredibly undersized at 5’6, but he was a prolific scorer for his entire career in the Q. He could be Clarkson’s next Jack Jacome. Huchette had above a point per game in his last year in the Q, and then had 28 points in 26 games at Concordia. I think people are underrating USports transfers currently. These are players who were top CHL players in junior and then went to USports and developed further against older competition. They’re more like transfer portal players than freshmen, and I believe they will transition smoother as a result. Huchette was excellent as a USports freshman and should contribute for Clarkson. Last but not least, Van Steensel had 86 points in the OHL two seasons ago and 53 points last season. He’s a very good player.
This collection of strong forward recruits give the model and myself a lot of faith in Clarkson’s offensive abilities. If the returning forwards don’t take a step AND the new guys struggle, then they will have issues, but I really think at least one will go their way.
For the rest of the lineup, Jared Mangan had a decent freshman year and can play in the bottom 6. Erik Bargholtz has been a bottom 6 staple in his Clarkson career and this season should be no different. Letourneau and St-Denis profile as recruits who can contribute right away in the bottom 6, but they’ll need to earn those spots since Clarkson has a lot of depth.
On the blue line, Clarkson also has more than just Sarsland and Taylor who project to contribute offensively. Noah Houle comes over from Lindenwood after a 17 point season and should slot in well. Bryce Sookro was dominant in the BCHL with 56 points in 53 games and won the BCHL’s top defenseman award. He’s an excellent incoming recruit. Matthew Mayich is a St. Louis Blues draft pick who has been a great two way defenseman his entire OHL career and projects to play key minutes right away. Lastly, William Bishop had a breakout year in the QMJHL with 43 points. With Clarkson’s defensive depth, he’ll probably be further down the lineup, but he’s a good recruiting pickup. Not to mention they return Ty Brassington who was pretty solid as a freshman. There’s no shortage of options for Clarkson, and while they are very youthful on the blue line too, the talent is notable.
Defense
Projected Defensive Rank: 3
Clarkson’s defense should be similarly strong like last year. They take a hit due to their aforementioned youth and the players they lost last season. Kaelan Taylor had the best defensive impacts on the team and will be missed, while Trey Taylor played major minutes in all situations. However, the hit is pretty mild because they do return Sarsland who was excellent both ways along with Brassington and Tate Taylor who were solid as freshmen and should take steps forward.
In net, there are some question marks after the graduation of Ethan Langenegger. Originally, Clarkson was slated to bring OHL goalie of the year Jackson Parsons, who easily projected as the best incoming freshman goaltender. Unfortunately for them, they got screwed by him signing an NHL contract with the Ottawa Senators this summer, well after any good replacements would be available.
In his place, Clarkson added Keenan Rancier out of the transfer portal. At Minnesota State, Rancier was pretty solid and had a 0.909 SV% or higher every year there. But at UVM last season, he struggled greatly with a 0.885 SV%. Can he regain his mojo at Clarkson? Perhaps, but the model doesn’t project him to be the starter.
Another portal add for Clarkson was Shane Soderwall from Curry College. Soderwall is interesting because he has totally dominated at the D3 level with a 0.949 SV% as a freshman and 0.945 SV% last season. The model has him rated pretty solidly with a projected 0.915 SV%, which would pretty much match what Langenegger did last year. If he can actually perform to that level, they’ll be totally fine, but there are question marks around how a D3 player will translate to the D1 level.
Lastly, Nick Avakyan comes in from the NAHL. He’s expected to be the #3, but he could be a sneaky pickup; the model likes him. While he did struggle throughout his WHL career, he was excellent in the NAHL last season with a 0.923 SV%. I don’t think he should be totally discounted from the competition.
Overall, Clarkson has a lot of talent and depth, which should put them near the top of the league and in the mix for the NCAA tournament. However, they still have plenty of question marks. The forward group is extremely young and is full of CHL players. How will they adjust to the NCAA? If it’s not well, they could be in trouble. While it’s not as youthful, a similar question exists on the defensive side.
Lastly, and probably most importantly, the situation in net has major question marks. Can Soderwall transition well from D3? If not, can Rancier regain his Minnesota State form or was he just bolstered by their strong defensive system and his UVM play is more representative of who he is? Is Avakyan as good as his NAHL play suggests or did he just play well in a weak league and his WHL form is his true level?
I think Clarkson is probably a year or two away from being a no doubt NCAA tournament team again. This year though, I do agree with the model that they’ll overcome the youth question marks due to their talent, and that Soderwall will transition well enough in net to make them a strong team that either just barely makes the NCAA tournament or is just outside the field. They’ll be an interesting team to watch for sure.
3. Cornell (Last Year: 6)
I broke down Cornell’s season pretty in depth when I did my ECAC playoff preview podcast. To summarize though, they were mostly really unlucky with bad goaltending that came out of nowhere from Ian Shane after he had been a rock star his entire career. It caused them to finish 6th in the league despite being expected to easily finish top 3 and make the NCAA tournament. In the ECAC tournament, they finally made good on their talent and went on a run to win the league and send out Mike Schafer with a championship. Then, they upset Michigan State in the Regional Semifinals of the NCAAs before falling in Regional Final, just short of the Frozen Four. Despite their start to the year and 6th place standings finish, I thought they were pretty clearly the second best team in the league behind Quinnipiac.
Now this year with new head coach Casey Jones, they are projected to take a small step back after losing a multitude of key seniors to graduation. They’ll still be quite a good team, but I don’t think they’re going to make the NCAA tournament again. To me and the model, this is a team that’s around 20 in the pairwise, and I’ll get into why below.
Key Losses: F Dalton Bancroft (27 points in 36 games), D Tim Rego (24 points in 36 games), F Sullivan Mack (24 points in 32 games), F Ondrej Psenicka (22 points in 30 games), D Ben Robertson (15 points in 36 games), D Michael Suda (11 points in 36 games)
Key Returners: F Ryan Walsh (31 points in 36 games), F Charlie Major (18 points in 28 games), D George Fegaras (14 points in 30 games), D Hoyt Stanley (13 points in 36 games)
Key Newcomers: D Luke Ashton (Minnesota State), G Alexis Cournoyer (QMJHL), F Giovanni DiGiulian (USHL), F Reegan Hiscock (BCHL), F Aiden Long (USHL), F Chase Pirtle (BCHL), F Caton Ryan (BCHL), D Xavier Veilleux (USHL)
Offense
Returning Offense Rank: 9
Incoming Class Rank: 5
Projected Offensive Rank: 6
This is the weakest offensive projection for Cornell that the model has ever had, but it does make sense based on the lack of returning offense. Additionally, the recruiting class is good, but usually, Cornell’s recruiting prowess has been excellent and not just good. This makes it tough to fill in the gaps from all the graduating seniors.
Dalton Bancroft left after his junior year to sign an NHL contract, and he’ll be missed. Sullivan Mack and Ondrej Psenicka have graduated after 20+ points each. That’s half of the top 6 gone. Additionally Jack O’Leary and Kyler Kovich graduated after putting up 17 points and 14 points, respectively. Lastly, the top 2 scoring defensemen on the team both have departed; each had at least 15 points. Tim Rego graduated, and Ben Robertson transferred to Michigan. In all, Cornell lost 6 out of its top 8 point getters and 7/10.
There are some good returners up front despite the losses. Ryan Walsh is a top center in the league with his two way ability. He elevated his game last season to lead the Big Red in points, and they’ll be relying on him to be an elite center on the top line once again. Charlie Major had a good freshman year but missed some time due to injury. Cornell will need him to stay healthy this year and take a step forward.
Other forwards that should be good players are Jonathan Castagna, Nick DeSantis, and Jake Kraft. Castagna was disappointing last season. After a stellar freshman campaign coming straight from Canadian prep school, he dropped from 25 points to 15. He is one of the most purely talented players in the league with his size, skating and skill, and Cornell needs him to live up to that potential to make up for the lost talent. He needs to bounce back this season. DeSantis has been a steady contributor throughout his Cornell career with 20, 14, and 14 points his first 3 seasons. As a senior, they can count on him to fill a key role as a middle 6 winger. Lastly, Jake Kraft had 13 points as both a freshman and sophomore and should contribute on the 3rd line. If those guys can elevate their games beyond what they accomplished last season, it’ll help a lot to replace the scoring.
For incoming freshmen, there’s a lot of good forwards that project to score right away. It starts with Aiden Long, who had nearly a point per game in the USHL in Madison. He’s a big power forward who is capable of jumping right into the top 6 on the wing. Giovanni DiGiulian was another high level USHL player who is capable of playing in the top 6 right away. Chase Pirtle is more of a second line player, but he dominated the BCHL last season with 64 points in 54 games. Those are the players who project as top 6 types from the jump.
For other key incoming forwards, Caton Ryan is really talented and had nearly a point per game in the BCHL as an 18 year old. He profiles as more of a 3rd liner to start, but he has a lot of potential. Reegan Hiscock is a huge power forward who had a point per game in the BCHL and also can play on the 3rd or 4th line to start.
On the blue line, Cornell did a good job replacing the losses from all the seniors leaving. First though, Hoyt Stanley returns after a good sophomore year, and given his talent and pedigree, he should take a step forward this year. Similarly, George Fegaras will be counted on more this season.
For the newcomers, Luke Ashton comes over from Minnesota State as a rare transfer portal addition. He had 13 points as a freshman there after being chosen in the NHL draft. His massive size (6’6” and over 230 LBs) and skill to go with it fits right into Cornell’s M.O., and I expect he’s going to be a great defenseman for them. Xavier Veilleux is another NHL draft pick, and he had an outstanding year in the USHL. He should be able to slide right into Cornell’s top 4 on the left side.
I’m not as high on the rest of the defensemen though. Michael Fisher has NHL draft pick pedigree, but he has struggled a lot with injuries the past few years. He also was very mediocre in the BCHL with Penticton last season. Hudson Gorski is a big defensive defenseman who should do well as a 3rd pairing type, but he doesn’t project to add much offensively.
You might be seeing why the model is lukewarm on Cornell’s offense now. There’s a few too many 3rd line and middle 6 types and not enough top 6 and top line types. Now, the model could be wrong; Castagna could bounce back, Kraft could take a step, etc. But having 5 forwards projected in teens for points and only a handful projected for more than 20 (and only Walsh for more than 30) is why it’s expected to be average. On the blue line, they have a lot of really good players, but none of them project to be 20+ point type defensemen. It’s mostly really good 2 way types, which helps their defensive projection but not offensive.
Defense
Projected Defensive Rank: 2
I’m curious to see if there’s any sort of drop off for Cornell defensively after the coaching change. I don’t think there will be since Casey Jones was known for bringing a heavy and strong defensive style to Clarkson, and his system was fairly similar to what Schafer was running at Cornell.
They do lose a lot on the blue line to be fair. Tim Rego was their top defenseman who was good defensively in addition to his offensive prowess. Michael Suda was an excellent shutdown defenseman who will be missed. Lastly, Ben Robertson had pretty good defensive impacts as well.
Regardless of that, Cornell should be excellent defensively as usual. Hoyt Stanley is great defensively and returns in their top 4. However, the main thing that evens out the losses on the blue line in the eyes of the model is the goaltending. Ian Shane really struggled last year after a previously sparkling clean resume over the first 3 years. He went down to a 0.905 SV% when his lowest before was a 0.916. The model expects improvement there.
The reason for the expected improvement is due to incoming freshman Alexis Cournoyer. Cournoyer dominated the QMJHL last season with a stellar 0.942 SV% and was selected in the 5th round of the NHL draft. The model expects he will give Cornell another elite goalie to add to their history at the position.
If for whatever reason, he isn’t ready to be a full time starter, I do like Remington Keopple as well. He never has seen much action in his career due to Ian Shane, but he was good in the USHL prior to Cornell and was on the USA U20 world junior team back in the day. He honestly should have gotten more time last season when Shane was struggling while he had a 0.958 SV%. For his career, he has a 0.896 SV%, and I think he could be good if needed even if he doesn’t have the upside that Cournoyer does.
Overall, I have to agree with the model. Cornell doesn’t look to have the scoring talent that they have typically had in recent years, but it should be good enough. The real strength of the team should be the defense, which will keep them a top team in the league. I expect them to easily make it into the top 4 on the back of the defense. Nationally, I see them as a team that will probably be on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble, but if they can outperform the offensive projection with guys like Castagna taking a step forward, they have a chance to slide into the NCAAs.
4. Harvard (Last Year: 7)
Guess who’s back? Back again? Harvard’s back, tell a friend.
Okay that might be a bit of an exaggeration since it’s not like Harvard is going to be a bonafide NCAA tournament team like they were up until 2 years ago. However, this looks like the year where Harvard can get back into the top 4.
After Harvard’s mass exodus to the NHL two years ago, I got called crazy for predicting them to take a big step backward to 7th in the league. They ended up finishing 8th. Last year, the model predicted them to take a slight step forward to 6th, and I personally was a little more bullish because I thought the young talent on the roster would progress more than they did. Still, they did take a small step forward to 7th place. I did think back when they lost all that talent that they would end up rebounding in 2-3 years once they could get a couple of their recruiting cycles in and developed. They have had talent, but it’s just been way too young. This year, I do think the talent will have developed enough to get back into the top 4.
Key Losses: D Ian Moore (14 points in 32 games)
Key Returners: F Mick Thompson (32 points in 33 games), F Casey Severo (28 points in 33 games), F Joe Miller (23 points in 28 games), F Ben MacDonald (16 points in 27 games), D Ryan Healey (13 points in 33 games), D Lucas St. Louis (11 points in 33 games), D Mason Langenbrunner (10 points in 33 games)
Key Newcomers: D Donato Bracco (USHL), F Richard Gallant (USHL), F Aidan Lane (OHL), F Heikki Ruohonen (USHL), F Chase Stefanek (USHL)
Offense
Returning Offense Rank: 2
Incoming Class Rank: 4
Projected Offensive Rank: 3
Harvard is always one of the most talented teams in the league, and this year, they will have the scoring experience to combine with the raw talent. The entire top line of Thompson, Severo and Miller are back after all had 23+ points last season. Thompson was absolutely outstanding as a freshman with 32 points to lead the team and made it onto the ECAC All-Rookie team. Severo is an excellent top line center who should further grow as a senior. Lastly, Miller has been around a point per game his entire career, and he can safely be projected to do the same this season.
Harvard also has depth outside of that trio. Ben MacDonald had some injuries last season, but when healthy, he is a good 2nd line center with size and skill. Justin Solovey had a solid freshman year with 12 points and should take a step in the middle 6, while Phil Tresca also had 12 points and can be a reliable depth scorer as a senior.
The incoming freshmen are really exciting too. Gallant was selected by San Jose in the NHL draft after a great year on the NTDP, and he projects to slide right onto the 2nd line. Lane is another NHL draft pick with a high skill level. He spent most of the year at St. Andrew’s in Canadian prep, but after the CHL rule change, he joined Brampton in the OHL and immediately started producing at a point per game rate, which relaxes concerns on how he will translate as such a young player. He also projects as a top 6 player.
Heikki Ruohonen was drafted by Philadelphia in 2024 and then spent last year in the USHL with Dubuque. He’s a strong two way center who would be on the 2nd line for most teams, but given Harvard’s scoring depth, he probably will center their 3rd line. Stefanek is another who will probably be lower in the lineup but on most teams, he would be on the 3rd line. Harvard is pretty loaded with scoring talent up front this season.
This holds true on the blue line as well despite losing captain Ian Moore after a great career as a two way defenseman. Ryan Healey returns for his senior season as a proven offensive defenseman. Lucas St. Louis had a good freshman year and can be counted on to provide some offense in the top 4. Mason Langenbrunner had his best offensive year last year, and his two way game will be really important for Harvard.
The incoming freshmen will be able to contribute immediately for the remaining spots in the lineup. Bracco was one of the top defensemen on the NTDP and is lauded for his hockey IQ and vision. I expect he can play in the top 4 right from the jump despite being undersized. Drake Murray was solid in the USHL and should play on the 3rd pairing behind Healey and Langenbrunner on the right side.
Harvard returns 86.8% of their scoring from last season with only Moore being a key contributor. That returning scoring combined with the excellent incoming freshman class means Harvard looks like one of the most dynamic teams in the league.
Defense
Projected Defensive Rank: 7
All of the returning talent means Harvard is projected to improve defensively to be about middle of the pack after allowing almost 3 goals against per game last year.
The improvement is only expected to be mild though because of the losses of Moore and Jack Bar. I already talked about Moore above, but he was consistently a very good two way defenseman during his career who had good defensive impacts. Bar didn’t provide a lot of offense, but he also had good defensive impacts. Both will be missed on the blue line, and the model gives them a slight penalty there.
For the returners, Langenbrunner had excellent defensive impacts last year and is their top two way defenseman who should balance out the offensive minded Healey and St. Louis. Matthew Morden was decent defensively as a freshman last year and should improve given his talent and pedigree.
In net, Harvard did lose Koskenvuo early to an NHL contract, but they return Ben Charette who had a solid freshman year. Charette was excellent in the AJHL before arriving at Harvard, and last year, he had a 0.909 SV%. I think he’s a pretty safe bet to repeat that and give them a steady presence in net even if he doesn’t take a step forward. If he does take a step forward though, it would go a long way for improving their defense.
One issue that should be mentioned though is that behind Charette, Harvard does not have any quality goaltenders. Their backups are walk-on 3rd string types that they just pulled straight from prep school, so if Charette really struggles or gets injured, they are totally screwed. Like I said, I feel pretty good about Charette, but goaltending is highly variable so it’s worth noting.
Overall, Harvard’s defense projects to keep them from truly regaining status as a top 20 team in the country. Their losses on the blue line keeps their projected improvement from the model pretty mild there, and while Charette was a solid goaltender as a freshman, he doesn’t project to be a great one yet. The offensive talent and model projection on that side means that their improvement should definitely bring them back into the top 6 of the league, and I agree with the model that it will carry them back into the top 4.
5. Union (Last Year: 4)
Union has been a team on the rise since hiring Josh Hauge, and the model predicts they will improve this year. The reason it predicts a drop in the standings is because even though they finished 4th in the league, they really were more like the 6th best team in the league if you go by the pairwise. I really, really liked what they did this offseason, and the model has them just barely below Harvard. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they finished in the top 4.
Key Losses: F Caden Villegas (29 points in 36 games), D John Prokop (27 points in 36 games), F Josh Nixon (23 points in 36 games), D Cullen Ferguson (16 points in 36 games)
Key Returners: F Colby MacArthur (29 points in 36 games), F Brandon Buhr (28 points in 36 games), F Ben Muthersbaugh (28 points in 36 games), F Nate Hanley (28 points in 36 games), D Nick Young (10 points in 36 games)
Key Newcomers: F Luke Buss (Wisconsin), D Tyler Dunbar (Colorado College), D Will Felicio (Michigan), G Cameron Korpi (Michigan), F Alex Laurenza (NAHL), D Etienne Lessard (USHL)
Offense
Returning Offense Rank: 3
Incoming Class Rank: 7
Projected Offensive Rank: 5
Union returns a lot of firepower up front despite the losses during the offseason. Caden Villegas tied for the team lead in scoring after a very good career, and Josh Nixon was consistently pretty good in his two years there.
The players that come back though definitely outweigh that. Colby MacArthur had a breakout year with 29 points after only 12 total his first two years. Nate Hanley had another great year and gives Union an excellent 1-2 punch at center. On the wing, Brandon Buhr had 19 goals last season and is a preseason All-ECAC selection. Ben Muthersbaugh had 13 goals last season in an outstanding freshman campaign. That group of 4 is up there with some of the talent that Harvard and Quinnipiac return.
Behind them, Union also returns good depth scorers. Lucas Buzziol and Riley Brueck had solid freshmen seasons with 13 and 10 points, respectively, and they should be able to fill roles in the middle 6. Parker Lindauer had 14 points after transferring in from Maine and should score in that range again.
Union has two newcomers that project to contribute. First, Luke Buss transfers in from Wisconsin and projects to be a solid addition to the middle 6. He was a very good performer in the BCHL before going to Wisconsin, but he hardly saw any ice time for them. Second is the player who I think is the most underrated incoming freshman in the league. Alex Laurenza comes in after dominating the NAHL and putting up 82 points. Because the NAHL is a weaker league and there’s tons of hype around all the CHL additions, Laurenza has fallen under the radar, but he’s a great addition and projects to play in Union’s top 6 right from the jump even with their good scoring depth.
On the blue line, John Prokop is a huge loss as one of the top defensemen in the league last year and arguably the country. Cullen Ferguson is also a big loss as he was another very key defenseman for Union last year. They do return Nick Young who was solid offensively, but there’s not much returning offense from the back end.
However, Union’s newcomers at defense are excellent and should help fill the void somewhat. Tyler Dunbar comes in from Colorado College where he barely played his first two seasons. Prior to going there, Dunbar was a top defenseman in the USHL, and he is pretty talented. The model really likes him based on his USHL experience, and I think he is going to make a difference in Union’s top 4. Will Felicio is arguably the top transfer portal addition in the league. Felicio was a top offensive defenseman in the USHL with dynamic skill and vision and very good skating despite being undersized. He went to Michigan at 18 and barely played for some reason. Despite barely playing, he still produced with 11 points in 25 games, all at even strength. When he entered the portal, I thought for sure he would end up at a good Hockey East school, so that was a huge recruiting win for Union and likely was made possible by the new arena and facilities. He should be one of their top defensemen.
For the more traditional newcomer, Etienne Lessard was a top offensive defenseman in the USHL last season and projects to contribute immediately. He is quite undersized though at only 5’9”, so that could hold him back in such a physical league. The offensive contributions should still be there though.
In summary, Union has a lot of returning talent up front and supplements that well with a couple of newcomers to give themselves a good 3 lines that can score. While they did lose their two most productive defensemen, they made good use of the transfer portal to help mitigate that. They look like they will be a good team offensively.
Defense
Projected Defensive Rank: 4
Union’s projected defensive improvement is actually more notable than the offense because that is what is going to drive them up this season. They already didn’t have issues scoring last year with 3.11 goals per game, but the defense allowed 3.03 goals per game, which isn’t good. This year, that is expected to change.
Union had a great offseason on this front. John Prokop is a huge loss defensively in addition to the offense, but from a defensive standpoint, it views the loss of Cullen Ferguson as a good thing. Ferguson easily had the worst defensive impacts on the team last year, so the model views him as addition by subtraction (defensively of course, not offensively). Then, the depth defensemen who graduated/transferred weren’t anything special either, so losing Prokop is mostly evened out.
Additionally, returning Nick Young is very big for them on defense because he had the best defensive impacts on the team by a wide margin. He should continue to be a great shutdown defenseman for Union. As long as the touted newcomers that I mentioned above are at least decent defensively, their blue line looks to be in good shape.
The biggest difference between this year and last, however, is in net. I have long been saying that Kyle Chauvette was overrated and more of a high-end back up or low-end starter who should split time rather than a full time starter. Last year, he had below a 0.900 SV% on the year despite Union actually doing pretty well to limit chances against. He just isn’t good enough to start full time for a good team.
I think Union recognized that, and they went out into the portal and got another huge recruiting win with Cameron Korpi. Korpi was very good in the USHL prior to going to Michigan last year. Then, at Michigan, he split the net and recorded a 0.904 SV%. As a freshman in a very tough conference in the Big 10, that’s not bad at all. He should be even better for Union in the ECAC. The model views him as a major upgrade on Chauvette.
After that happened, Chauvette apparently decided he didn’t like having competition and entered the transfer portal. Honestly, if I were a Union fan (gross!), I’d say good riddance. If you can’t handle competition being brought in when you weren’t good enough to warrant being handed the job again, then I wouldn’t want you on my team. I’d say it all worked out quite well in Union’s favor, but we will have to see how it plays out on the ice.
On paper, Union should be pretty improved defensively to the point that they are projected to be the 4th best defense in the conference. That’s a big difference from last year, and if they do live up to that, they are going to absolutely contend for the top 4.
Overall, Union’s combination of good offense and defense, without being elite in either, has them projected to be 5th. As I said at the beginning though, this looks like a good team, and they should be in contention for a top 4 spot. The model has them extremely close to Harvard, and I could see it going either way.
6. Dartmouth (Last Year: 5)
Reid Cashman has done a great job at Dartmouth turning them into a pretty good program. I am going to be lower on them than most of the projections after they have been 4th and 5th the past two years, and they continue to do a good job recruiting. I don’t disagree with any of that, but there does appear to be a major flaw with Dartmouth that keeps them below the other 5 teams despite having a lot of talent.
Key Losses: F Sean Chisholm (27 points in 33 games), F Cooper Flinton (24 points in 32 games), D John Fusco (21 points in 32 games), F Luke Haymes (18 points in 22 games), F Braiden Dorfman (16 points in 31 games), D Ian Pierce (9 points in 24 games)
Key Returners: F Nikita Nikora (30 points in 33 games), D CJ Foley (30 points in 33 games), F Hayden Stavroff (22 points in 31 games), F Hank Cleaves (21 points in 32 games), D Eric Charpentier (11 points in 33 games)
Key Newcomers: F Andrew Clarke (USHL), F Brock Cummings (BCHL), D Brock Devlin (NAHL), F Nathan Morin (BCHL), F Ryan Schelling (BCHL), F Jason Stefanek (BCHL)
Offense
Returning Offense Rank: 6
Incoming Class Rank: 3
Projected Offensive Rank: 4
Dartmouth lost some big pieces in the offseason, both to graduation and early to the pros. Luke Haymes had some injuries last year but was a top forward in the league when healthy. He signed early along with Cooper Flinton. Both were top forwards that are big losses for the Big Green. Sean Chisholm also scored at nearly a point per game pace last season and now has graduated, so they’re losing basically 3 top line forwards. Braiden Dorfman was also a consistent middle 6 scorer.
Luckily, Dartmouth does return other important forwards. Nikita Nikora is an excellent playmaker, and he led the team in scoring last season. Hayden Stavroff and Hank Cleaves both had great freshmen years with 20+ points apiece. All 3 will be mainstays in the top 6.
What makes Dartmouth’s offensive projection still pretty good despite the major losses is they quietly have an excellent recruiting class with numerous quality forwards being added.
Andrew Clarke had 45 points in the USHL last year and projects to play middle 6 minutes right away. Brock Cummings and Nathan Morin were both solid in the BCHL and can play on the 3rd line. The crown jewels of the class though are Ryan Schelling and Jason Stefanek. Schelling was 3rd in the entire BCHL in scoring with 75 points and should play top 6 minutes immediately. Stefanek had 63 points in the BCHL and also projects to contribute in the top 6 right away. The incoming recruits add some top end talent and scoring depth up front for Dartmouth.
On the back end, John Fusco is a huge loss after he had 21 points. Ian Pierce also contributed offensively when he was healthy and will be missed. Those two were very good players, but losing them isn’t back breaking.
It’s especially not back breaking because Dartmouth returns star defenseman CJ Foley. Foley had 30 points and was one of the top defensemen in the league last year. It’s also rumored he turned down NHL contracts to return for his junior season. He’s on the Preseason All-ECAC team for a reason, and he should be elite once again. Eric Charpentier is also a key blue liner returning after putting up 11 points as a sophomore. The two of them will likely be the top pairing.
The only key newcomer at defenseman is a big one: Brock Devlin. It may not seem like he is a big addition on the surface because he played in the NAHL. He had a crazy 67 points in 55 games though, absolutely bonkers numbers for a defenseman. I don’t care what league you’re in, well above a point per game is amazing for a defenseman. He should be an excellent offensive defenseman for Dartmouth right off the bat.
Dartmouth’s underrated recruiting class will help fill the holes left by their many key departures, and they return enough talent to be pretty good offensively. They should score at a good rate this season.
Defense
Projected Defensive Rank: 8
Here is that fatal flaw I was referring to with Dartmouth. The defense is projected to be below average. There’s a few different factors for this that I’ll get into below, but their projection defensively is worse than the other teams in their range in Harvard and Union.
First, the defensive production lost on the blue line is a lot. Only RPI, who got ravaged in the transfer portal after their coaching change, lost more defensive production. Dartmouth lost both John Fusco and Ian Pierce as mentioned in the offense section. This may not seem like a lot, but it’s the quality of their play that matters here.
John Fusco was excellent defensively in addition to his offense and represents a huge individual loss. Ian Pierce didn’t play the full season due to injury, but his defensive impacts were also quite good. The model may be overrating the defensive impacts of only two players, but they are big losses without a doubt.
The other main flaw for Dartmouth that none of the other top 6 teams have is in the goaltending department. I was high on Emmett Croteau last year despite his struggles at Clarkson, but last year, he was below average for Dartmouth. He has enough of a track record now that the model is going entirely off of his college play instead of including the very good USHL pedigree. And that college track record has not been good. If he can breakout, Dartmouth can for sure make me look silly, but he has yet to show a high enough level of play at the college level.
All of this results in a projected 0.31 drop in goals against average, which puts them in the bottom half of projected defenses in the conference. They will need improved goaltending and some defensemen to step up defensively to mitigate the losses there in order to outplay that projection.
Overall though, they are still very much in range to get into the top 4. They are not very far behind Union and Harvard in the projections, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they can be better defensively than expected. They’ll be a pretty competitive team once again.
7. Colgate (Last Year: 3)
The model is always too low on Colgate, but it’s tough to see how they should be above any of the top 6 on paper. They don’t project to be as good offensively or defensively as any of those teams. It’s fair to be skeptical of this projection though given the track record here. They consistently have found recruits who have outplayed their junior hockey pedigree, and they have done really well at developing their players.
Key Losses: F Brett Chorske (34 points in 36 games), F Alex DiPaolo (26 points in 32 games), D Tommy Bergsland (24 points in 36 games), F Ben Raymond (18 points in 36 games), D Reid Irwin (17 points in 32 games)
Key Returners: F Max Nagel (24 points in 36 games), D Michael Neumeier (20 points in 35 games), F Ryan Sullivan (15 points in 23 games), D Antonio Fernandez (14 points in 31 games), F Simon Labelle (13 points in 25 games), F Daniel Panetta (13 points in 25 games), D Brett Merner (9 points in 35 games)
Key Newcomers: F Tyson Doucette (OHL), G Reid Dyck (WHL), D Joshua Niedermayer (USHL), D Isaiah Norlin (Omaha), F Easton Wainwright (OHL)
Offense
Returning Offense Rank: 5
Incoming Class Rank: 8
Projected Offensive Rank: 7
The offense is projected to be pretty average this season after many big losses to graduation. Brett Chorske and Alex DiPaolo were the two top scorers on the team last season, with both scoring at nearly a point per game rate, and both have now graduated. Ben Raymond was more of a middle 6 scorer, so he’s not as big of a loss.
Colgate has some good returners who hopefully will be more healthy this year since Sullivan, Panetta and Labelle all missed a good amount of time last season. Max Nagel was great as a freshman and is the leading returning scorer. He will probably lead the team in scoring this year. Ryan Sullivan took a step forward last year to put up 15 points in 23 games, and he should play in the top 6 this year. Daniel Panetta and Simon Labelle also had injury filled years and will be in the top 6. The year before both had 27+ points, and Colgate will need them to get back to that. It’s a solid but unspectacular group of 4 if they don’t bounce back.
Niko Rexine and Jake Schneider both had 15 points last season, and Colgate will need them to take steps forward to become true top 6 talents. Easton Wainwright and Tyson Doucette seem to be around that level as well as incoming freshmen. Both were pretty good in the OHL but not great, and they look to be middle 6 type players. I feel like that’s the issue with Colgate on paper this year. Plenty of solid players, but with Chorske and DiPaolo gone, there’s a lack of high end talent.
On the blue line, top defenseman Tommy Bergsland is gone after graduating, and so is former top 4 mainstay Reid Irwin. Both were quite good offensively the past couple years and are big losses. I do really like the defensemen that Colgate return though. Michael Neumeier had an excellent freshman year with 20 points and should be their top defenseman. Antonio Fernandez is a good offensive defenseman who had 14 points last year. I also really like Brett Merner. He only had 9 points but was lower in the lineup due to Colgate’s depth last year. I think he could breakout this year.
Colgate should still be pretty deep on the back end with two of their newcomers. Isaiah Norlin scored nearly a point per game in the BCHL before going to Omaha last year. He didn’t play much and transferred in search of more ice time, and Colgate should be in position to give him that. I think he’ll be really good for them based on his play in junior hockey. Joshua Niedermayer went to Arizona State too young and then went back to juniors and played in the USHL last year where he had a pretty solid year. I think he will be good for them as well.
Colgate has a lot of solid players, but there’s just generally a lack of high end talent after all the graduations of the top players. Having guys like Daniel Panetta and Simon Labelle return to their pre-injury form, and having guys like Michael Neumeier take steps forward is imperative to being more than a middle of the pack offense.
Defense
Projected Defensive Rank: 9
Colgate was very weak defensively last season but managed to overcome that to win games. They still project to be fairly weak defensively this season but slightly improved.
Bergsland is a big loss defensively in addition to his offense, but the other losses weren’t really contributors defensively. Irwin’s defensive impacts were just meh last season even though he was good in previous years. Belpedio is another example of addition by subtraction as he had by far the worst impacts on Colgate last year. It averages out to not hurt Colgate too much.
They also return some really good defenders. Neumeier was excellent both ways and will be key back there this season. Brett Merner had great defensive impacts too, and he should step up into a bigger role this year.
In net, Colgate returns Andrew Takacs. This is an area where similar to Dartmouth, they are weaker than the top teams in the conference. Takacs had a 0.903 SV% last year and a 0.901 for his career. He’s not good enough to be a full time starter.
It’s possible that incoming freshman Reid Dyck can compete with him. Dyck projects to be pretty similar in performance. He is very experienced with a long WHL career, but he was just okay in the WHL with a career 0.892 SV%. He has some pedigree as he was drafted by the Boston Bruins back in 2022, but there’s also a reason that they chose not to sign him when their rights to him expired. They clearly didn’t think he was good enough to warrant signing him, and I can’t say I disagree.
Overall, Colgate needs to find some top end players to keep their performance from last year. They have managed to do this before and prove the model wrong, so it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion. I’m definitely skeptical though. The bigger issue in my eyes is that the defense projects to be below average and without a true #1 goaltender. That limits their ceiling a lot in a league where a lot of the middle teams are improving.
8. Brown (Last Year: 8)
This ranking probably surprises some people given that Brown lost a lot of key players in the offseason, but they did enough to still be ahead of the bottom 4, all of whom look to be pretty bad. Another thing that helps Brown is they look pretty solid defensively. They have a somewhat similar outlook as last season with some good top of the lineup players but extremely limited depth.
Key Losses: F Tyler Kopff (28 points in 32 games), F Max Scott (26 points in 32 games), D Brett Bliss (5 points in 31 games), G Lawton Zacher (0.914 SV%)
Key Returners: F Ryan St. Louis (29 points in 23 games), F Brian Nicholas (25 points in 28 games), D Alex Pineau (16 points in 32 games), D Ethan Mistry (12 points in 32 games)
Key Newcomers: D Matthew Desiderio (USHL), G Freddie Halyk (Denver), F Ben Poitras (Northeastern), F Michael Salandra (Quinnipiac)
Offense
Returning Offense Rank: 8
Incoming Class Rank: 9
Projected Offensive Rank: 9
Losing Tyler Kopff and Max Scott after only their sophomore years was a killer blow for a Brown team that actually has many very good young pieces that they were starting to build around. Kopff was signed early to an NHL contract, while Scott transferred to Maine. Those two were top of the lineup pieces that are not easily replaced, especially with Brown’s lack of depth.
The other two excellent top of the lineup forwards will have to keep playing up to that level. Ryan St. Louis struggled with injuries but still led the team in points with 29 in only 23 games. He’s a dynamic player who should be Brown’s best player night in and night out. Brian Nicholas was outstanding as a freshman, producing at a near point per game rate. He will slide up as the top line center now that Scott is gone.
The issue is the talent surrounding them. Brown did try to make up for it through the transfer portal despite being limited there due to Ivy League rules. Ben Poitras comes over from Northeastern where he played lower in the lineup and only had 3 points in 31 games. Prior to Northeastern, however, he was dynamic in the USHL and had more than a point per game his final year there. I think he’s going to be great for Brown, and he could be a similar success story as St. Louis, who also transferred in from Northeastern. Michael Salandra is the other transfer. He didn’t play a single game at Quinnipiac last season, but he had a point per game in the BCHL before going there.
Those are good pickups, but after that? It doesn’t look good. Even with Salandra, on most teams, he’s probably a 3rd line player. Outside of those 4, the top 6 is going to be filled with two rising sophomores who had 10 and 9 points. Charlie Gollob doesn’t have much junior hockey pedigree to speak of; he was extremely mediocre in the BCHL. Ivan Zadvernyuk had a point per game in the NAHL before Brown, but that’s nothing special for that league either. I know our friends at Brown Hockey Blog disagree, but I just don’t see it with them. They’re 3rd line players at best.
After them, it gets even more dire. Ryan Shostak is next on the list for highest point scorers up front, and he had only 6 points last year. That’s the 7th best forward on the team. Not good! The bottom 6 is going to be an extreme weakness.
On the blue line, Alex Pineau returns after building on his great freshman year. He should be their top defenseman again. Ethan Mistry also returns as a very good two way defenseman and should contribute offensively again. For the newcomers, Matthew Desiderio was one of the top defensemen in the USHL and is a huge add for Brown. He should step immediately into the top 4 and have a big impact. None of the other defensemen project to add much offense.
Luckily for Brown, it’s harder to find top end talent than it is to find good depth players. If they can develop one of the current players into a good 3rd liner and get Gollob and Zadvernyuk to take steps forward, they could be meh offensively instead of on the lower end. It’s certainly possible, but I would bet against it.
Defense
Projected Defensive Rank: 5
This is where Brown is expected to do well, and it’s why they are still supposed to finish in 8th despite the offense and losses. They are not projected to be as good defensively as last season, but it’s still pretty solid.
On the blue line, Brett Bliss is a loss defensively as he had pretty good impacts there. They also lose Tony Andreozzi, but the model doesn’t view him as a particularly big loss. It really likes the return of Nick Traggio and Ethan Mistry as guys who are good in their own end. It all evens out there in the end despite the loss of Bliss.
In net is where the main downgrade comes in. Lawton Zacher was a top goaltender in the ECAC last season and arguably the country. He decided to enter the transfer portal and go to Northeastern following the season. It certainly was a big blow to the team.
Brown did well in finding his replacement in my opinion though. Freddie Halyk comes over from Denver after posting a 0.915 SV% in limited time there last year. He has great size at 6’6” and was solid in the AJHL before going to Denver. I think he was a good pickup for Brown. While the model obviously doesn’t expect him to replace Zacher, it projects him to be less of a downgrade than you might think. I think he can keep Brown solid defensively even if he won’t be a top goalie in all likelihood.
Overall, Brown’s defense should keep them competitive this year even with the offseason losses. The offense has enough top end talent to score more than most of the bottom of the league teams even though the depth is pretty dire and will really hurt them. I think people are being a little too harsh on Brown after the offseason, and the model doesn’t have them that much behind Colgate. It’s possible they could surprise people even though their ceiling is probably limited.
9. Princeton (Last Year: 9)
Princeton will be looking to improve in year two of the Ben Syer era after an expectedly below average start. They struggled offensively as anticipated since they lack talent, but defensively, they were about average. The defense should be the strength of the team again after the offseason and given Syer’s track record at Cornell. However, the offense does not project to improve the way you would hope in year two of a new head coach, which is what holds Princeton back.
Key Losses: D Noah de la Durantaye (10 points in 29 games), G Ethan Pearson (0.913 SV%)
Key Returners: F Brendan Gorman (26 points in 30 games), F Jake Manfre (17 points in 30 games), F Jaxson Ezman (15 points in 30 games), D Nick Marciano (14 points in 30 games), F David Jacobs (14 points in 26 games), D David Ma (13 points in 30 games), D Ian Devlin (4 points in 30 games)
Key Newcomers: None
Offense
Returning Offense Rank: 4
Incoming Class Rank: 10
Projected Offensive Rank: 10
It may be surprising to see Princeton’s offense projected so low given they return a lot of scoring. The main thing is that their returning offense is mostly driven by quantity not quality. Last year, they struggled to score, so returning 88.6% of their point production doesn’t really do a whole lot.
No key forwards were lost up front, but they also only had one 20 point scorer. Brendan Gorman had nearly a point per game last year and returns as the clear top player on the roster. Jake Manfre had a good freshman year, and they will need him to take a step forward to be competitive offensively. Jaxson Ezman and David Jacobs were solid, but they need more from the two of them. Jacobs had 24 points the year before, so he has shown he can be a true top 6 player. If he can get back to that, that would be a big help.
Those are the only players who had above half a point per game last year, which shows immediately why the Princeton offense is lackluster. Other guys who will have to step up are Miles Gunty, Kevin Anderson, and Luc Pelletier who all had between 8 and 10 points last season. There are no key incoming forwards, but Hans Martin Ulvebne is the closest. He had 23 points in the USHL last season and projects to add 9 points.
For the defensemen, Nick Marciano and David Ma were both pretty solid offensively, but neither is a top level talent. Noah de la Durantaye was consistently a very good defenseman for Princeton, and he’s a pretty big loss for them even though he wasn’t as good last year as in the past. Tyler Rubin was very good as a sophomore but missed half the year last year due to injury. A return to form for him would be quite helpful.
The only incoming freshman on the blue line is Chris Reiniger who played 2 years in the USHL with the Chicago Steel and had 22 points there last season. He should be a solid player for them right off the bat, but he’s not a player that the model registers as a key newcomer offensively.
There’s just not enough talent on the roster for Princeton to score much. If they have some of the younger players who showed promise take big steps forward, they have a chance to be middle of the pack, but that’s a big if.
Defense
Projected Defensive Rank: 6
This is where Princeton’s bread and butter will be. Last season, they were slightly below average, and it should improve to be solid this year.
First, they only lose de la Durantaye as part of the defense corps. While he was good offensively, his defensive impacts were the worst on the team, so the model views him as addition by subtraction. Ian Devlin was pretty good defensively and returns while Ma was solid defensively as a good two way player. The combo of addition by subtraction with plenty of key returners gives them some expected improvement.
In net, Ethan Pearson graduated after a pretty good year with a 0.913 SV%. Neither of the incoming freshmen project to be starting level in the net, so Princeton will be turning to Arthur Smith. Smith was a pretty heralded recruit with lots of talent and some NHL draft looks prior to going to Princeton. However, he has struggled a lot his first two years there. As a rising junior, it’s kind of now or never for him to finally breakout and live up to his potential. If he can breakout, Princeton has the chance to surprise with a pretty good defense.
Overall, Princeton is a really vanilla team. They lack offensive talent and will struggle to score. The defense should be solid though and keep them competitive in most games. It is what keeps them in 9th above the other bottom teams in the conference. They have the potential to surprise if enough of the younger players step up, but they look to be a pretty plain team that will play a lot of low scoring games.
10. St. Lawrence (Last Year: 12)
SLU is in a bad position as a team that both struggled greatly last year, and they also lose the vast majority of their top players from that team as only 2 of the top 9 return. That team already struggled a lot to score, and now the situation looks pretty dire there. However, the defensive side looks improved, and that’s the difference here.
Key Losses: F Greg Lapointe (19 points in 34 games), D Mason Waite (16 points in 35 games), F Tomas Mazura (14 points in 17 games), D Philippe Chapleau (11 points in 35 games)
Key Returners: F Tyler Cristall (17 points in 29 games)
Key Newcomers: D Sam Frandina (BCHL), F Sam LeDrew (BCHL), F Cooper Pierson (BCHL), F Rasmus Svartstrom (BCHL)
Offense
Returning Offense Rank: 11
Incoming Class Rank: 11
Projected Offensive Rank: 12
The cupboard is pretty bare here offensively. Not a single player on the team last year crossed over the 20 point threshold, and they lose 2 out of the 3 players who managed to have more than half a point per game in Lapointe and Mazura. Other scorers that were high up in the lineup, like Felikss Gavars, Ty Naaykens, and Reilly Connors have also departed.
For the returners, Cristall was pretty good last season, but that’s the only key returner. The next best returner is Isaac Tremblay who had a solid freshman year with 12 points, but if you’re 2nd best returning scorer had only 12 points, you’re in trouble. Gabe Westling, Gunnar Thoreson, and Nicholas Beneteau are all younger players who could take steps forward but none scored more than 10 points last year.
There are some incoming freshmen who will make impacts. First, Rasmus Svartstrom is easily the best player in the class. He led the entire BCHL with 46 goals, and he had 69 points total on the season. He adds some much needed scoring talent, and he should be an immediate boost to the top 6. After him, Sam LeDrew had nearly a point per game in the BCHL. He projects to be an impactful 3rd liner as a freshman. Cooper Pierson struggled in the USHL but was pretty good in the BCHL last year. He projects to be a bottom 6 forward immediately. The main issue is that the latter two are solid but unspectacular recruits, and only Svartstrom is expected to have a big impact.
On the blue line, the top 3 defensemen have graduated. Mason Waite and Philippe Chapleau were the only two who had double digit points last year. Drake Burgin also graduated, which does not help, even though he took a step back offensively in his senior year. The best returning defenseman is Isack Bandu who had 7 points.
Sam Frandina was really good in the BCHL and projects to be a solid offensive defenseman but nothing special. Andrew Brown is the only other notable defensive recruit. He was good in the BCHL but just average in the QMJHL, so he doesn’t project to add too much offensively.
The offense is projected to be the worst in the league for a reason. Even with some surprises and players taking steps, I just can’t see a path to a good offense here.
Defense
Projected Defensive Rank: 10
While the defense isn’t projected to be good at all, it is expected to improve enough to put SLU above RPI and Yale in the model.
The reason for this is pretty interesting. Despite losing Waite, Chapleau, and Burgin, they are all more examples of the model viewing a player as addition by subtraction when they have weak defensive impacts. That trio of players all had the worst defensive impacts on the team, and the model thinks it is a good thing that they have all graduated now. Should it do that? I’ve gone back and forth on it, but I do think so. Just because a player leaves a team doesn’t mean it’s a bad thing. There’s plenty of players who have negative impacts on their team.
In net, they return Mason Kucenski who is expected to be the starter after he was the primary starter last season. He was below average with just a 0.900 SV%, and I was surprised they didn’t try to give others opportunities honestly. Kucenski was not very good in the USHL before going to SLU, so it’s not as if he has some great pedigree to fall back on either. He is projected to give them similar results as last year.
The changes are enough to project SLU to improve by 0.5 goals per game defensively. Even though they were very bad defensively last season, the blue line improvement and slight improvement in net means they shouldn’t be horrible like last season. Instead, they should just be a normal level of bad.
Overall, it’s really tough to see St. Lawrence rising out of the bottom 4 this year. Even with some pretty significant defensive improvement projected, it’s only enough to raise them to 10th. Offensively, they just don’t have the talent to really compete in the league and look like the worst scoring team in the ECAC.
11. RPI (Last Year: 10)
Onto the team who certainly had the most eventful offseason. The better question for RPI is what didn’t change? They decided to let go Dave Smith as the head coach, and they replaced him with Eric Lang from AIC. After a multitude of losses in the transfer portal and lots of roster turnover with a whopping 19(!!) new players, they land here as a team with good depth but a lack of high end talent and question marks defensively. I have been trying to calm down all the RPI fans who are excited about the Lang hire and expect immediate results and convince them that this year is still looking to be a rough one.
Key Losses: D Will Gilson (24 points in 35 games), F Tyler Hotson (22 points in 35 games), F Felix Caron (21 points in 35 games), F Jake Lee (20 points in 35 games), F John Beaton (19 points in 34 games), D Elliott McDermott (18 points in 35 games), D Max Smolinski (15 points in 35 games)
Key Returners: F Dovar Tinling (20 points in 32 games), F Jagger Tapper (20 points in 29 games)
Key Newcomers: F Ethan Bono (Merrimack), F Matthew Buckley (OHL), F Cole Gordon (Arizona State), F Jack Gorton (BU), G Nathan Krawchuk (OHL), F Jackson Kyrkostas (BCHL), D Lucas Lemieux (BCHL), F Ian Scherzer (USHL), F Filip Sitar (UConn), D Kazimier Sobieski (USHL), F Tyler Wallace (Niagara), F Luc Wilson (Minnesota State)
Offense
Returning Offense Rank: 12
Incoming Class Rank: 6
Projected Offensive Rank: 8
Unsurprisingly, RPI has the least amount of returning scoring in the conference; they only return 25% of their point production from last season. Hotson and Caron were big losses in the transfer portal as young core players who had 20+ points, while Lee and Beaton graduated. RPI basically had the difficult combination of a big senior class followed by lots of transfers due to the coaching change.
Two very good forwards do return up front though. Dovar Tinling has had two very good years as a top 6 center since transferring in. Now, he’ll likely be the leader of the forward group as the top line center. Jagger Tapper had a surprise freshman year with 20 points, and he should be playing in the top 6 once again in a key role. Rainers Rullers is the only other returner of note there after a 13 point freshman campaign and a development camp invite to Tampa. He is expected to play in the top 9.
The vast majority of the forward lineup will be newcomers though. Starting with the numerous transfers, Filip Sitar comes in from UConn after one year there. In junior hockey, he was a stellar player and was getting some NHL draft looks, but at UConn, he was suspended to start the year due to pro games in Sweden. Once he finally got into the lineup, he was relegated to the 4th line where he played a key defensive role for the top 10 team, but he only recorded 3 points on the year. The model likes him to make good on his junior hockey promise and talent, similar to Ben Poitras on Brown.
Tyler Wallace comes into RPI after 2 great years at Niagara where he had 30 and 26 points. He likely won’t produce that much in the ECAC, but he was a good pickup that can play in the top 6. Luc Wilson comes over from Minnesota State where he was a good 3rd liner for them with 13 points. The year before, he had 19 points, so he’s a proven middle 6 forward on a good team. On this RPI team, he will likely see more ice time and is expected to be productive. Ethan Bono played in the bottom 6 at Merrimack for two years, recording 9 points in each. He is projected to score more at RPI given the step from Hockey East down to the ECAC and will probably be slotted into the 3rd line.
Cole Gordon was a good 4th line center for a pretty good ASU team last year, and he projects to play a similar role for RPI. Lastly, Jack Gorton barely saw the ice at BU, but prior to BU, he was pretty solid in the BCHL, so the model also likes his projection on the 4th line.
One wild card that I didn’t mention because the model has a low projection on him is Alfred Lindberg. Lindberg was highly productive at AIC as a freshman with 22 points in 20 games, but last year, he struggled with injuries and AIC struggled in general. He fell back to 11 points in 34 games, and since that’s in the Atlantic, the model doesn’t expect much from him. However, if he falls back to his freshman year level, that’s another player that can get into RPI’s lineup and produce.
For incoming freshmen, Jackson Kyrkostas is expected to be the most productive after he had over a point per game in the BCHL. He has consistently put up points everywhere he has gone in his career, and he should be an immediate impact freshman in the middle 6. Matthew Buckley comes in from the OHL where he had 35 points last year, but the year before he had 51. He projects to play a 3rd line role. Lastly, Ian Scherzer had a solid year in the USHL and also projects to be a 3rd line type.
Defensively, RPI lost their top defensemen from last year. Will Gilson, Elliott McDermott and Max Smolinski all left either through the transfer portal or graduation, so there’s a large offensive void on the blue line.
The most impactful newcomers there are Lucas Lemieux and Kazimier Sobieski. Lemieux was one of the best defensemen in the BCHL last season, earning a selection on the 2nd All Star team. He should be an immediate impact in the top 4 with his offensive abilities. Sobieski is an interesting transfer. He played 5 games at UMass to start the year and struggled, and then, he returned to the USHL where he was excellent. He is projected to be in the top 4 as well, and he has the highest point projection among the defensemen. None of the other returners or newcomers are expected to produce offensively, which is definitely a weak point.
With all the key transfers and freshmen, it might be surprising that RPI’s offense is projected to be 8th in the league, but you might have noticed why that is the case. Almost all of these players project as middle of the lineup types, and they lack players who are supposed to be highly productive. Only Tinling, Tapper, and Wallace have top 6 projections, and then it’s a lot of middle 6, 3rd line, and bottom 6 projections. The depth will keep RPI competitive, but it means they are unlikely to score as much as last year.
I do want to shoutout that depth though because RPI actually has one of the deepest forward lineups in the league by the projections. If you compare the 4th line and their projections for every team in the league, Quinnipiac is by far #1, but RPI, Clarkson, and Harvard are all practically tied for #2. Obviously, you don’t win many games with your 4th line, and there’s a reason those other teams are top 3 teams by the offensive projections while RPI is 8th. It still gives them a good foundation to start with in year 1 of the Lang era.
Defense
Projected Defensive Rank: 11
This is the huge weakness that keeps RPI below the rest of the teams. Defensively, RPI was extremely weak last year, and it’s not supposed to get any better after all they lost. Gilson, McDermott and Smolinski were the top 3 defensemen on the roster both by offense and by defense. Losing them given their defensive impacts drops RPI’s defensive projection a significant amount. There is no team in the league that lost more defensively.
In the goaltending department, this actually helps mitigate the expected drop. RPI is bringing in a very good goalie in the model’s eyes with Nathan Krawchuk. Krawchuk was a great goalie in the OHL last year, ranking 13th in SV% on a team that was incredibly leaky defensively. This represents a big upgrade from the subpar goaltending last season, and if Krawchuk actually delivers, that’ll be a big core piece to have in place for the rebuilding effort.
Despite that improvement in the goaltending department, it really only evens out the losses defensively, meaning the projection is pretty similar to RPI’s defensive performance last season, which was really bad. That projection keeps them below SLU, who the model has them pretty close to, and Brown and Princeton who project to have at least mediocre defenses even if RPI is better offensively.
There’s always some unknowns with a new head coach, but the first year in a new head coach’s rebuild is pretty much always a tough year. Even some of the recent successful rebuilds, such as Maine with Ben Barr, started out with single digit win seasons. Maybe Lang can buck that trend with so much turnover defensively and a new defensive system in place, but I think it’s unlikely to expect a team with so many new faces to vastly improve immediately on defense. Overall, RPI’s depth should have them competing in most games, but the roster needs a lot of work in future years as Lang takes the reigns.
12. Yale (Last Year: 11)
Yale has consistently been the lowest rated team by the model due to their continuous shortcomings in the recruiting department leading to some pretty horrendous offense. This year, the offense is once again supposed to be bad even with some bright young pieces to build with. However, it’s really the defense that keeps their projection so low after allowing 4 goals per game last season.
Key Losses: F Will Dineen (18 points in 30 games), D Connor Sullivan (11 points in 30 games), D Dylan Herzog (11 points in 30 games)
Key Returners: F Ronan O’Donnell (20 points in 29 games), F David Chen (17 points in 18 games), F Micah Berger (15 points in 21 games), D Rhys Bentham (4 points in 8 games)
Key Newcomers: F James Shannon (BCHL)
Offense
Returning Offense Rank: 7
Incoming Class Rank: 12
Projected Offensive Rank: 11
Yale’s poor recruiting once again hampers their offensive ability. However, this year feels like the first time in awhile where there’s actually a pretty solid young core to build around. They only lose Will Dineen up front who was good and is a loss. However, the young players seem capable of filling that hole.
David Chen returns after struggling with injuries, but when he was healthy, he had nearly a point per game. He should be their best player this season. Micah Berger also had some injury troubles but had an excellent freshman year when healthy. He is a true top 6 forward. Lastly, Ronan O’Donnell had a surprise freshman year with 20 points to lead the team. He looks to be a valuable power forward in the top 6 once again.
There’s some promising young players below them too, but they will need to take steps forward since they played at a 3rd line level. Zach Wagnon and Donovan Frias had 14 and 12 points, respectively, which are respectable freshman seasons. Will Richter had 11 points as a sophomore. That trio needs to be more in the 20 point range this season.
The issue is that those players profile like 3rd line players, so after the top 4 forwards, the depth drops off quickly. Even after those 3 players, the next best returning forward had 6 points. That’s a dramatic difference, and that lack of depth means they don’t project to score very much. They aren’t going to get much help from the league’s worst recruiting class either. Only James Shannon projects to contribute, and even that is only a bottom 6 projection since he had slightly less than a point per game in the BCHL.
Yale also loses their top two defensemen in Connor Sullivan and Dylan Herzog. They will be helped by Rhys Bentham hopefully being healthy for the full year. He only played in 8 games last season but was looking really good in those games with 4 points. He will likely be their top defenseman. The highest point total for a returning defenseman is 6 though, so there’s not much offense on the blue line. Similarly, there’s not any help coming from the recruits. Beyond the top players in Yale’s lineup, there’s simply just not much of note.
Yale is going to struggle to score again this season. Even if the promising young players all take steps, there’s not enough depth or talent on this roster. It’s basically the same story as Princeton but with way less depth and slightly more talent at the top of the lineup.
Defense
Projected Defensive Rank: 12
The defense is projected to be the worst in the league once again. Defense was actually supposed to be a strength for Yale last year, but then, it totally imploded. Jack Stark somehow dropped from a 0.919 SV% to a 0.879, which is an insane difference. That was the best save percentage of any of the goalies on the team somehow. Yale’s goaltending was the 2nd worst in the country only above Miami.
For this year, the losses of Sullivan, Herzog, and Kieran O’Hearn hurt them because those three were their top defensemen. The model projects there to be more shots and chances against with those losses. Again, this is a spot where a healthy Bentham should be a really big help for Yale.
In net, Stark will likely be the starter again. The model uses up to 3 years of data for goaltending, so it is projecting a bounce back for him, which Yale desperately needs. Even with a bounce back projected for Stark though, the improvement isn’t expected to be drastic enough when you’re starting from such a low spot; Yale gave up 4.03 goals per game last season.
While there is improvement expected overall, the blue line losses counteract the goaltending bounce back a little bit, so the improvement is projected at 0.23 goals per game, which is solid, but it’s not nearly enough. Allowing 3.8 goals per game would still be horrendous, and certainly the worst mark in the league. There is some hope here though. Stark has shown he can play at a high level, so if he truly can rise back to his freshman year level, they can get back to a respectable defense and potentially finish higher than 12th. I think it’ll all come down to Stark though because with the losses on the back end, I don’t think they can really improve too much in shots against and chances against.
Overall, Yale has a nice, young core to build around, but they still lack scoring talent and will struggle in that department. They need to do a better job recruiting to surround that core with better pieces. Even with big jumps from the young players, it will not be enough to be more than a below average offense. Defensively, Yale will need Stark to return to his freshman year form to have success, and their ceiling as whole pretty much lies with him.
Final Model Rankings
Quinnipiac
Clarkson
Cornell
Harvard
Union
Dartmouth
Colgate
Brown
Princeton
St. Lawrence
RPI
Yale
Model Tiers
Quinnipiac
————————- (big gap)
Clarkson
Cornell
————————- (small gap)
Harvard
Union
Dartmouth
————————-
Colgate
Brown
Princeton
————————-
St. Lawrence
RPI
Yale
All-League Predictions
1st Team
Sr F Jeremy Wilmer, Quinnipiac
Jr F Mason Marcellus, Quinnipiac
Sr F Ryan St. Louis, Brown
Jr D CJ Foley, Dartmouth
Sr D Tristan Sarsland, Clarkson
Jr G Matej Marinov, Quinnipiac
2nd Team
So F Mick Thompson, Harvard
Jr F Ryan Walsh, Cornell
Jr F Andon Cerbone, Quinnipiac
So D Michael Neumeier, Colgate
Sr D Will Gilson, Quinnipiac
Fr G Alexis Cournoyer, Cornell
3rd Team
Sr F Brandon Buhr, Union
Sr F Brendan Gorman, Princeton
Sr F David Chen, Yale
Jr D George Fegaras, Cornell
So D Tate Taylor, Clarkson
So G Ben Charette, Harvard
All-Rookie Team
This year’s all rookie team was particularly hard to predict because of the influx of CHL talent. There’s a lot of talent coming into the league this season, that’s for sure.
F Adrian Misaljevic, Clarkson
F Aiden Long, Cornell
F Remi Gelinas, Clarkson
D Matthew Desiderio, Brown
D Xavier Veilleux, Cornell
G Alexis Cournoyer, Cornell
Awards
Player of the Year: Jr D CJ Foley, Dartmouth
Goalie of the Year: Jr G Matej Marinov, Quinnipiac
Rookie of the Year: Fr G Alexis Cournoyer, Cornell
If you’ve made it all the way to the end of this preview, thanks for reading! Hockey season is coming this week and I can’t wait!
Excellent job as always. Thank you.